The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.28 (550 Votes) |
| Asin | : | 0385267320 |
| Format Type | : | paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 272 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2016-06-25 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles.In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business.Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
"Sold on scenario-building, although shows its age" according to Nicolas.Bernard.Leclercq. I'm reviewing the 1996 edition.What the book does well.It’s a great sales pitch for the concept of scenario-building. I'm sold on the idea.It's very approachable and easy reading. There are a lot of anecdotes, asides about history, culture, and social observations. I appreciated Peter Schwartz's keen powers of observation.That said, the writing style is mostly in the form of anecdotes, most of which will be confusing to readers who did not grow up in the 80s. The book's age is a constant distraction.There are a lot of excellent academic level concepts on s. "A A 30,000 foot view of scenario planning and its benefits A fine read on the foundations and methods of scenario planning. I learned a great deal about the why of this type of planning, not just the how. It was a bit surrealistic, since it was published before Sept. 11, 2001. Some of the possible futures of U.S. society suggested in the book, in hindsight, appeared naive or quaint. Yet, even then, it was instructive reading, because it made for a great example of how unforeseen events actually do change the scenario planning process in real ways. I enjoyed the book, evidenced by the fact that I started and finished it . 0,000 foot view of scenario planning and its benefits" according to Gordon Straw. A fine read on the foundations and methods of scenario planning. I learned a great deal about the why of this type of planning, not just the how. It was a bit surrealistic, since it was published before Sept. 11, 2001. Some of the possible futures of U.S. society suggested in the book, in hindsight, appeared naive or quaint. Yet, even then, it was instructive reading, because it made for a great example of how unforeseen events actually do change the scenario planning process in real ways. I enjoyed the book, evidenced by the fact that I started and finished it . Scenario Planning, Imagining the Future Alicia Crumpton This is a must read for those interested in strategic thinking, strategic visioning, and in moving beyond biases and assumptions to imagine the future. Schwartz noted, "I wrote this book [to show individuals] how to begin using a method for investigating important decisions" (p. xiii). He continued to note that the point isn't to pick one future but instead to " make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of how they might turn out" (pp. xiv, 4). Such an important di
In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. From the Back Cover What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life - bottom-line numbers, for instance - but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories - scenarios - and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/D